China will continue to weaker export prospects – China, exports, trade – the machine tool industry
Import and export volume of China in October
General Administration of Customs November 11 to data released, in October, China’s exports of 128.327 billion U.S. dollars, representing growth of 19.2% over the same period in 2007, slightly slower than September’s 21.5%; China imports 93.088 billion U.S. dollars, compared with 2007 growth of 15.6% over the same period, growth was significantly lower than September’s 21.3%. October trade surplus of 35.239 billion U.S. dollars month, for the third consecutive month of 2008 trade surplus hit a monthly record high.
10 surplus driven mainly by growth in China imports caused by the sharp decline, while export growth was stable, exports in October fell 5.9% in the chain, while China imports fell 13% in the chain. The main reason for this situation and the significant reduction in domestic demand. From China in recent months, the major macroeconomic data, as continued weakness in the housing market, China has experienced a slump in investment demand, industrial production fell sharply. China’s October production index in the PMI index 44.3%, significantly higher than in September dropped 10.3 percentage points. And directly drag China import demand. Meanwhile, in the context of weak domestic demand, excess capacity in some industries to turn to exports, which also makes the context of weak external demand, export growth has maintained a high level.
Analysts pointed out that China China imported materials prices come down significantly, will further depress the growth rate of China imports. September crude oil, iron ore and other China imported raw materials prices fell sharply, resulting in the China import price index fell by more than 10%. China Import price index dropped significantly, but also further down the China import growth. But given the central government recently launched investment in fixed assets and construction of low-rent housing active fiscal policy, will promote China’s iron and steel, machinery and other investment sectors, China’s China imports will be resumed. With the financial crisis, China’s new export orders index fell sharply in October compared with 9.6% Central, which will lead to China’s export growth continued to decline. Based on this, our monthly trade surplus is difficult to continue to grow.
See from the breakdown of data, particularly the larger proportion of total China imports of machinery and electronic products, the chain fell 9.8%. Closely related with the industrial production of raw materials, China imports of iron ore, decreased by 21.98%, China imports of steel chain, compared with September down 9.4%. This reflects the decline in industrial investment in China led to weak demand for investment goods related. Exports, the traditional export commodities slowdown, clothing, footwear continued to run low, which in July 2007 to adjust export tax rebate rate in China has a lot. The export of electromechanical products to maintain stable growth, stable growth of China’s exports remain an China important condition.
Analysts believe that despite China’s export growth remained steady growth, but the chain fell 5.9%, the export outlook is not optimistic. According to the International China Trade Organization statistics, if the GDP growth rate dropped to 0.3% in developed countries, developing countries reduced to about 3% GDP growth, China’s export growth should be about 8%. The International Monetary Fund has projected 2009 global economic growth from 3% to 1%, of which China’s major China trading partners in Europe, the United States and Japan will see a negative growth, which will form a great impact on China’s exports.
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